With 88 days until the election, Liberals continue to point to polling that shows Trump losing ground in nearly every critical state he needs to succeed in. He and his surrogates point out that the polls don’t accurately reflect the numbers of his supporters, and remind people of the large crowds at his rallies as proof. They also point out that the polls are skewed towards Democrats, that their internal polling shows Trump winning, and that most polls don’t take into account the enthusiasm factor for Donald Trump.
In case you think that this ignoring of polls and confidence in a victory is something new, let’s take a walk down memory lane. Let’s see what the Romney campaign was saying around this time in 2012 when polls showed him down (by about half of what they show Trump to be down right now):
Romney political director Rich Beeson said Tuesday the campaign was using its “trusted” internal data instead of independent outside polls. “The public polls are what they are,” Beeson said. “I feel confident about where we are.”
The “Enthusiasm Factor” for Romney is huge. Conservatives are focused, intense, motivated, and enthusiastic. Democrats turned out for Obama in record numbers in 2008. Today they are demoralized. A big edge goes to Romney on Election Day as conservatives, white voters, middle class voters and independents turn out in record numbers for Romney.
Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential nominee, told ABC News Wednesday he isn’t concerned about recent polls showing him behind President Barack Obama, saying, “at this early state, polls go up, polls go down.”
“If Romney was a middle-class man, or not incredibly wealthy, that would be a contributor to a greater degree of accessibility,” Mr. Kenoyer said in an interview at his office. Accusing the mainstream news media of favoring Mr. Obama
A senior Romney adviser downplayed the new pollsat a news briefing Friday morning, saying that they must be midsummer flukes because there had been no “precipitating event” to move the numbers so much. The campaign cited the latest Gallup tracking poll, which has the two candidates in a dead heat at 46-46 percent.
Rich Beeson, Romney’s political director, brushed aside the public polls of Ohio, telling reporters traveling with the candidate Tuesday that the campaign is making strategic decisions based on its internal surveys and research and remains confident about the outcome.
“Polls show Romney trailing badly in most of those states. But, as I’ve argued from day one, the polls are wrong. They are badly skewed towards Democrats. Quite simply they are over-polling Democratic voters and assuming a turnout that looks like 2008, when record numbers of Democrats came out for Obama.”
“in 2008 Obama overwhelmed McCain by out-spending him 10 to 1 down the stretch. That won’t happen in 2012. Romney is even, or can out-spend Obama, in the last 2 weeks of the election. That makes a huge difference in the outcome.”
“Christians will turn out in record numbers this year. Obama has offended Christians again and again. Last election 20 million evangelical Christians did not vote. They will turn out in record numbers in 2012 to defeat the most anti-Christian President in US history.”
“The news media is ignoring signs of mass revulsion towards President Obama. In the West Virginia Democrat primary, a felon got 40% of the vote versus Obama. In deep blue Massachusetts.”
“All of this is diversion from what the people of America care about. What they want to know is, who’s going to make their life better, who’s going to make sure we have more jobs, who’s going to make sure we have more take home pay, who’s going to keep America strong abroad?””
And keep in mind that Trump’s polling numbers are much worse than Romney’s was in 2012. In fact:
“n states more Republican-leaning than North Carolina was in 2012 (Georgia being the bluest state), and that had at least one poll available since November, Trump performed nearly 10 points worse than Romney in a weighted average of 17 GOP-dominated states.
Some of the most stunning numbers came from Utah, where Trump performed nearly 45 percentage points worse against presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton than Romney did when he faced President Barack Obama in 2012.”
When polls are with Trump he seems to be the biggest fan of them. When they show him slipping away, they’re rigged. His supporters use all the excuses Romney did to explain away the abysmal polling numbers. They cling to this idea that because he draws crowds he must be doing well. A crowd at a rally is statistically insignificant. And the real explanation is that more Trump supporters are likely to have part time jobs or be unemployed and thus have more time to attend rallies. Car wrecks draw crowds too. Miley Cyrus fills stadiums. Neither of them will become president. Though both are more qualified than Donald Trump.